Appendix to 2018-2023 IDL’s evaluation report:

On-line repository of additional important information

(IDL researchers are in bold)

 A.1. Compound climate extreme events

• Geirinhas, J. L., Russo, A., Libonati, R., Miralles, D. G., Ramos, A. M., Gimeno, L., & Trigo, R. M. (2023). Combined large-scale tropical and subtropical forcing on the severe 2019–2022 drought in South America. Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 6(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00510-3

• Ramos, A. M., Russo, A., DaCamara, C. C., Nunes, S. A., Sousa, P. M., Soares, P. M. M., Lima, M. M., Hurduc, A., & Trigo, R. M. (2023). The compound event that triggered the destructive fires of October 2017 in Portugal. iScience, 26(3), 106141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2023.106141

• Russo, A., Gouveia, C. M., Dutra, E., Soares, P. M. M., & Trigo, R. M. (2019). The synergy between drought and extremely hot summers in the Mediterranean. Environmental Research Letters, 14(1), 014011. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf09e

• Sousa, P. M., Barriopedro, D., García-Herrera, R., Ordóñez, C., Soares, P. M. M., & Trigo, R. M. (2020). Distinct influences of large-scale circulation and regional feedbacks in two exceptional 2019 European heatwaves. Communications Earth & Environment, 1(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-00048-9

 A.2. Tsunami hazards and risk

• Costa, P.J.M., Dawson, S., Ramalho, R.S., Engel, M., Dourado, F., Bosnic,I., Andrade, C. (2021). A review on onshore tsunami deposits along the Atlantic coasts. Earth-Science Reviews, 212, art. no. 103441. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103441    

• Madeira J, Ramalho RS, Hoffmann DL, Mata J, Moreira M, Costa P (2020) A geological record of multiple Pleistocene tsunami inundations in an oceanic island. The case of Maio Cape Verde. Sedimentology, 67(3),1529-1552. https://doi.org/10.1111/sed.12612

• Matias L., Carrilho F., Sá V., Omira R., Niehus M., Corela C., Barros J., Omar Y. (2021). The Contribution of Submarine Optical Fiber Telecom Cables to the Monitoring of Earthquakes and Tsunamis in the NE Atlantic Frontiers in Earth Science, 9, art. no. 686296. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.686296

• Omira, R., Ramalho, R.S., Kim, J. et al. Global Tonga tsunami explained by a fast-moving atmospheric source, 2022. Nature, 609, 734–740. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04926-4

• Omira, R., Baptista, M.A., Quartau, R., Ramalho, R.S., Kim, J., Ramalho, I., Rodrigues, A. (2022). How hazardous are tsunamis triggered by small-scale mass-wasting events on volcanic islands? New insights from Madeira – NE Atlantic. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 578, art. no. 117333. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2021.117333

A.3. Geodynamic and Seismo-tectonic Modelling

• Almeida, J.; Riel, N., Rosas, F. M.; Duarte, J.; Kaus, B. (2022). Self-replicating subduction zone initiation by polarity reversal. Communications Earth & Environment, 3(55). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00380-2.

• J. Almeida; N. Riel; F. M. Rosas;  J. C. Duarte; W. P. Schellart (2022). Polarity-reversal subduction zone initiation triggered by buoyant plateau obstruction. Earth and Planetary Science Letters. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2021.117195

• Civiero, C., Strak, V., Custódio, S., Silveira, G., Rawlinson, N., Arroucau, P., & Corela, C. (2018). A common deep source for upper-mantle upwellings below the Ibero-western Maghreb region from teleseismic P-wave travel-time tomography. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 499, 157-172. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2018.07.024

• Civiero, C., Custódio, S., Duarte, J. C., Mendes, V. B., & Faccenna, C. (2020). Dynamics of the Gibraltar arc system: a complex interaction between plate convergence, slab pull, and mantle flow. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 125(7), e2019JB018873, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2019JB018873

• Matias, L, et al. The contribution of submarine optical fiber telecom cables to the monitoring of earthquakes and tsunamis in the NE Atlantic. Frontiers in Earth Science (2021): 611, http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.686296

• Riel, N.; Duarte, J.C.; Almeida, J.; Kaus, B.J.P.; Rosas, F.; Rojas-Agramonte, Y. and Popov, A. (2023). Subduction initiation triggered the Caribbean large igneous province. Nature Communications, 14(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36419-x

A.4. Mineral Resources

• Codeço, M.; Mateus, A., Figueiras, J.; Rodrigues, P.; Gonçalves, L. (2018). Development of the Ervidel-Roxo and Figueirinha-Albernoa volcanic sequences in the Iberian pyrite Belt, Portugal: Metallogenic and geodynamic implications. Ore Geology Reviews 98: 80-108, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oregeorev.2018.05.009

• Gonçalves, M.A., Rasteiro da Silva, D., Duuring, P., Gonzalez-Alvarez, I., Ibrahimi, T. (in press) Mineral exploration and regional surface geochemical datasets: An anomaly detection and k-means clustering exercise applied on laterite in Western Australia. Journal of Geochemical Exploration, 107400, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gexplo.2024.107400.

• Gonçalves, M.A.; Mateus, A.; Pinto, F.; Vieira, R. (2018). Using multifractal modelling, singularity mapping, and geochemical indexes for targeting buried mineralization: application to the W-Sn Panasqueira ore-system, Portugal. J. Geochemical Exploration 189, 42-53, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gexplo.2017.07.008

• Jesus, A.P., Mateus, A., Benoit, M., Tassinari, C.C.G., Bento dos Santos, T. (2020). The timing of sulfide segregation in a Variscan synorogenic gabbroic layered intrusion (Beja, Portugal): Implications for Ni-Cu-PGE exploration in orogenic settings. Ore Geology Reviews, 2020, 126, 103767. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oregeorev.2020.103767

• Mateus, A., Martins, L. (2021). Building a mineral-based value chain in Europe: the balance between social acceptance and secure supply. Mineral Economics. 34, 239-261, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13563-020-00242-3   

A.5. Solar Energy Generation

• Aghaei, M., Fairbrother, A., Gok, A., Ahmad, S., Kazim, S., Lobato, K., Oreški, G., Reinders, A. H., Schmitz, J., Theelen, M., Yilmaz, P., & Kettle, J. (2022). Review of degradation and failure phenomena in photovoltaic modules. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 159, 112160. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2022.112160

• Dias, J. B., Da Graça, G. C., & Soares, P. M. M. (2020). Comparison of methodologies for generation of future weather data for building thermal energy simulation. Energy and Buildings, 206, 109556. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2019.10955

• Panagiotidou, M., Brito, M., Hamza, K., Jasieniak, J., & Zhou, J. (2021). Prospects of photovoltaic rooftops, walls and windows at a city to building scale. Solar Energy, 230, 675–687. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2021.10.060

• Brito, M., Santos, T., Moura, F., Pera, D., & Rocha, J. (2021). Urban solar potential for vehicle integrated photovoltaics. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 94, 102810. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2021.102810

IDL’s articulation of academy-based research and strategic state-laboratory activities places it in the singular role of a national cross-disciplinary platform for the advancement of Earth-System research, as recognized by the recent renovation of its Associated Laboratory status.

B.1 Collaborative Research Laboratories

IDL is also actively involved in the creation and development of Collaborative Laboratories, bridging the gap between academia and industry, fostering innovation, advancing technological progress, and addressing real-world challenges.

Specifically, IDL has had an active participation in the initial consortium of three Collaborative Research Laboratories (Smart Energy Lab - https://www.smartenergylab.pt, Bioref - https://www.bioref-colab.pt/en and Smart farm colab - https://www.sfcolab.org), bridging the gap between fundamental research and practical industry applications resulting in the development of innovative products (such as electric vehicle charging solutions to condominiums, edge - https://www.edge-charge.com) and accessing funding opportunities (e.g. the Alliance for the Energy Transition, a large-scale industry consortium with a total funding +300 M€ which will create +400 high skilled jobs in the energy sector).

B.2. Energy transition sector

Other relevant interactions with industry in the sector of energy transition include:

Entrepreneurship Initiatives: In 2023, IDL researchers established KEEPIT as a spin-off, securing at least two years of venture capital funding. KEEPIT focuses on the development and commercialization of adiabatic compressed air energy storage, a critical element for accommodating the increased penetration of renewables in the energy mix. Additionally, NATURALWORKS, an already well-established company, specializes in providing design and consultancy services in Building Energy Systems, Energy Certification, and Acoustics.

 Career pathway for IDL graduates: A remarkable achievement is the employment of over three-quarters of PhD alumni from the Energy Transition Group by major industry stakeholders in the energy sector. Notable employers include the EDP Group, REN Group, and collaborative laboratories such as SEL and HyLab.

B.3. Mining Industry

IDL has a protracted collaboration with mining industry, embracing different complementary dimensions: (i) training of post-graduate students, mostly via internships of MSc students; (ii) financial support of some costs implicated in research activities or assistance in particular work components (such as, sampling surveys in active mines) planned in PhD programmes; and (iii) research contracts (of variable extension and budget) aiming specific issues on mineral exploration, ore characterization and mineral economy.

The work (including many analytical services) completed for industry in the last years covered the mineralogical and multi-element geochemical characterization of hundreds of samples coming from exploration prospects and active mines located in Portugal, Spain, Angola, Mozambique, Chile, and Brazil.

In addition, several mining companies have been active partners in national and international consortia with IDL and other entities, addressing different calls for research funding in Portugal, UE and abroad (namely Brazil).

During 2018-2023, active partnerships with the following companies from the mining sector were established: EDM, Savannah Resources, ALMINA, and Lundin Mining. Also, during the same period, 4 MSc students were involved in specific internships and the work carried out by 3 PhD students was partly supported by some companies operating in the Iberian Pyrite Belt. The working force of these and other companies acting in Portugal and abroad includes many MSc and PhD alumni of FCUL/IDL.

Recently completed and ongoing research projects in this area include:

• MOSTMEG – Predictive models for strategic metal rich, granite-related ore systems based on mineral and geochemical fingerprints and footprints (https://mostmeg.rd.ciencias.ulisboa.pt/).

• ERA-MIN2 joint call 2020 (Out.20-Jun24). Project Coordination: A. Mateus – RG3 (ca. 650 k€, from which 250 k€ were supported by the Portuguese Agency FCT).

• INOVMINERAL4.0 – “TECNOLOGIAS AVANÇADAS E SOFTWARE PARA OS RECURSOS MINERAIS”, (https://inovmineral.pt/) funded under the scope of “Sistema de Incentivos à Investigação e Desenvolvimento Tecnológico” (SI I&DT), included in the “Programa Operacional Temático Competitividade e Internacionalização, Programa Operacional Regional do Norte, Programa Operacional Regional de Lisboa, Programa Operacional Regional do Centro” and “Programa Operacional do Alentejo”, and supported by “Fundos Europeus Estruturais e de Investimento” (FEEI) attached to the programme “Portugal 2020”. Work-Package Coordination: A. Mateus – RG3 (ca. 3 M€, from which 150 k€ were directed to the FCUL/IDL team)

• SEMACRET – Sustainable Exploration for Orthomagmatic (critical) Raw Materials in the EU: Charting the Road of the Green Energy Transition (https://semacret.eu/), Horizon-CL4-2021-Resilience-01-06. Pt-Coordination: A. Jesus (ca. 4.5 M€ from which 650 k€ were directed to the FCUL/IDL team)

• I4GREEN – Interregional investment for the sustainable supply of raw materials in the EU Green Energy Transition (ref. nº 101084028), Horizon-I3-2021-INV2a-GREEN, Type of Action I3-PJG

 Other industry collaborations in this area also include the involvement and coordination of several research contracts established with SOGEO, INOVA and Geoterceira (Azores) aiming high enthalpy reservoirs and characterization of geothermal systems.

B.4. Paper Industry and Electric energy distribution

In the last decade Ricardo Trigo (RG1) and Carlos da Camara (RG1) have maintained strong links with two large international companies based in Portugal (The Navigator Company - https://en.thenavigatorcompany.com and E-Redes - https://www.e-redes.pt/en), both within the context of the CEASEFIRE Project (https://www.ceasefire.pt/index.php?&l=eng) that develops a wide range of tools and web-services, tailored to help companies dealing with wildfire-related problems and forecast fire risk in their business. Within these contracts, it was established that some of these tools were also offered freely to national authorities such as the National Civil Protection Agency (ANEPC), firefighters and municipalities.

The Navigator Company (pulp and paper production) has been annually funding our research group with €50,000 per year to develop further tools within the CEASEFIRE context, since 2016. Likewise, since 2020 the electricity provider company E-Redes (formerly EDP-Distribution) has also been funding the CEASEFIRE tools at €25,000 per year. These funds are used to finance both student scholarships and give the opportunity for these students to go to national and international conferences to present their developed work. In 2022 a former student of our group (Joana Araujo) has been employed by The Navigator Company.

More recently, the IDL climate group (Ricardo Trigo - RG1, Pedro Soares - RG1 and Carlos da Camara – RG1) signed a contract with E-Redes in 2022-2023 (€60,000) to help develop their Climate Change Adaptation Plan. The project aimed to obtain scenarios of relevant variables for the occurrence of climate extremes (wind, precipitation, temperature) that could affect the assets of E-Redes in the context of the different climate change scenarios that are anticipated for the coming decades.

IDL champions a triple methodology approach to key Earth-system research targets comprising: i) geological field work, land and ocean geophysical data acquisition; ii) laboratory analysis; and iii) numerical modelling: 

• Field sampling is a key component of IDL's activities. Observations arising from atmosphere and geophysical monitoring were the initial motivation of IDL in the XIX century, and the Institute keeps in operation the national climate reference station, contributing to the international effort of preserving historical scientific data and making it accessible worldwide. This activity is presently supported by EU programs.

• IDL Laboratories include a comprehensive set of instruments for geological, geophysical, and geochemical analysis as well as indoor and outdoor solar energy and building energy laboratory facilities. These infrastructures are used for both teaching and research and are a prerequisite for the development of IDL science. Links with EPOS and EMSO funding will help maintain such infrastructure and make it available to researchers elsewhere.

• Numerical modelling is also a fundamental method of IDL research. In the past decades, IDL built a capability of numerical modelling for meteorological, oceanographic and climate applications, anchored in different partnerships with international leading research organizations, such as ECMWF, EUMETSAT, CORDEX, among others. Computing capabilities have now become of primordial relevance for Solid Earth research (geodynamic modelling), with wide use of explicit modelling tools such as Underworld and LaMEM geodynamic modelling codes.

IDL will continue reinforcing its international relevance and/or leadership concerning the following areas.

D.1. Climate change

Climate change is undeniably a hot topic that will continue to dominate the global and regional arena in the coming decades. We expect to continue to take advantage of current efforts, namely within the context of both the National ROADMAP, the National Roadmap for Adaptation, CORDEX and related Flagship Pilot Studies by:

• Implementing new parametrizations on high-resolution models to assess the impact of climate change on compound events, fires, and pollution.

• Fostering the use of convective permitting simulations to address local scale extremes in present and future climate.

• Promoting combined approaches between dynamical and statistical downscaling (ML for representing in an improved way local climates, such as urban climates).

• Having a multidisciplinary perception of the impacts of extreme events under climate change conditions on a sectoral basis.

• Offering evidence-based policy recommendations to governments and international organizations and to suggest and evaluate strategies for mitigating climate change and adapting to its effects. This knowledge is invaluable for policymakers and the public to make informed decisions.

D.2. Compound events

Compound events modelling is a core research topic because it addresses the growing complexity and interconnectedness of extreme events, which are exacerbated by climate change. The next decade will see a growing emphasis on understanding and mitigating the impact of compound events, and IDL’s contributions will play a significant role in addressing these critical challenges. For this, we will rely on new ways of earth observation and modelling, namely through ML methods. Besides the early warning tools under development (mentioned above), we are also fostering close international partnerships in relation to further assessment and modelling of compound extreme events. Several joint projects have been running with Brazilian, Spanish and Belgian colleagues in relation to the assessment of compound events in South America and Europe. These have started with the traditional drought-heatwave-wildfires sequence but are now extending to further links with atmospheric pollution and impacts on health (excess mortality and morbidity). These projects are assisted by a growing number of reciprocate visits and common postgraduate students, including several Master's and PhD students. It is worth mentioning that several regions of Brazil are now being monitored continuously for fire risk using web open platforms similar to CEASEFIRE in Portugal.

 D.3. Earth Observation

Satellites have been providing a nearly continuous view of the Planet for several decades. These top-of-atmosphere measurements cover a wide range of bands of the electromagnetic spectrum and provide an unprecedented amount of data to monitor, understand and model land-atmosphere interactions. Land Surface conditions have been shown to play a significant role in modulating weather conditions at multiple spatial and temporal scales while controlling the lower branches of the energy, water, and carbon cycles. With the lead of the LSA SAF European consortium, we expect to:

• Take advantage of past, present and future missions to derive land surface variables (temperature and radiation fluxes, vegetation state, wildfire signatures), aiming at assessing land surface processes and their representation in Earth System models.

• Develop advanced algorithms that use remote sensing data, including radar images, to identify changes in atmospheric conditions that may indicate the imminent occurrence of severe events.

• Explore new approaches to merging physically-based models and machine-learning techniques (see above).

 D.4. Fire risk early warning mechanisms (support and development)

At this point, IDL has one early warning platform currently running. The CeaseFire is an online platform developed at IDL that combines satellite information, weather data, and fire history to calculate areas with higher risks of fire. This platform was developed as a prevention tool for planning and fighting forest fires and is widely used by firefighters, several major private companies (e.g., E-Redes, The Navigator Company) that are forest owners and official entities such as the National Civil Protection Authority (ANEPC). We are foreseeing further development of CeaseFire and other early warning mechanisms particularly related to droughts, heatwaves, and atmospheric rivers. These endeavours are currently under development and will benefit from:

• Continuous integration of multispectral data to identify early signs of extreme weather events, enabling more effective anticipation and response to these events.

• Implementation of real-time monitoring systems that allow the integration of remote sensing data to track the evolution of extreme weather events, enabling more accurate forecasts and early warnings.

• Implementation of machine learning techniques to (i) develop new algorithms to estimate geophysical parameters from remote sensing observations and (ii) to search for links between fundamental variables describing land surface conditions and their role in the amplification (or attenuation) of climate extremes.

D.5. Plate Tectonics: towards a new dynamic paradigm

In the past few decades Plate Tectonics has been steadily progressing towards a full dynamic understanding of the observed and measured plate movements, and their interactions, to unravel the essence of (often hidden) physical mechanisms that explain these kinematic manifestations. This resulted in great part from recognizing the coupled nature of the (geo)dynamics governing the lithosphere and mantle, leading to a better understanding of geological phenomena such as intraplate volcanism, deformation and seismicity, the heterogeneous composition of the mantle and crust, and the forces driving plate tectonics and related processes (e.g., subduction initiation, ophiolite emplacement, orogenic collision, etc.). 

D.6. Earthquake and Tsunami Monitoring and Hazards

Earthquake and tsunami studies remain a key research target of IDL, from the fundamental physical understanding of their source processes, propagation and local effects, to real-time monitoring and early warning, to long-term hazard assessment and risk mitigation. In the coming years we will: Improve tsunami hazard assessment by combining field data with numerical models; Use innovative data (e.g., OBS, fibre optic cables) to improve earthquake monitoring; Improve earthquake and tsunami data analysis and modelling using ML techniques; Integrate different high-resolution geophysical datasets to map active faults; Understand the impact of external loads on modulating the time evolution of earthquakes and eruptions; Use geodynamic modelling grounded on a physics-based approach to integrate various datasets and better understand the coupling mechanisms between deep Earth and surface forcings.

D.7. Large marine landslides (Mass Transport Deposits – MTDs)

External geodynamics continues to be at the core of IDL research activity, with increasing efforts focusing, namely, on better understanding the formation of large marine landslides (or Mass Transport Deposits, MTDs) along continental margins, and in ocean volcanic settings. This will be pursued by taking onshore and offshore examples as a reference, to better understand the impact of the primary and secondary effects of these natural hazards in the past and present, and aiming at providing the tools and knowledge to increase the resilience of coastal communities.

D.8. Critical mineral resources

Another key objective is to attain a comprehensive understanding of the formation and distribution of critical mineral resources required to sustain the present-day energy transition endeavour. While pursuing this objective, IDL will continue to adopt a strategy consisting of integrating diverse geoscientific disciplines and expertise, such as mining, geological mapping, geochemistry, geochronology, structural geology and tectonics to unravel new guides for mineral exploration. This will also contribute to the creation of new green fields for mining extraction, while testing and implementing technology and knowledge to mitigate mining environmental problems, in compliance with the present-day demand for sustainable resource and waste management. At the same time, IDL’s investigation will be intensified concerning research, characterization, and distribution of marine mineral resources (e.g., complying with increasing clean technology and battery demands), namely (but not exclusively) in Portuguese waters.

Expanding knowledge regarding the processes taking place in deep ocean domains is of key importance for a better understanding of our planet’s dynamics. Direct and indirect observations, comprising measurements and data acquisition at high depths in these domains, remain a considerably challenging scientific endeavour. Submarine cables provide a game-changing innovative solution regarding the observation of the oceans, with a potential leap-forward impact in this scientific area, and with multiple advanced ramifications in different subfields. Over the next 5 years, two different types of submarine cables will provide new observations to our community:

E.1. Science Monitoring And Reliable Telecommunications (SMART) cables

SMART cables are transoceanic telecommunications cables that are equipped with sensors at a modest incremental cost to provide novel and persistent insights into the state of the ocean and the solid Earth beneath. The sensors are regularly spaced along the cables, acting as deep-sea permanent instrumentation, with real-time communication to land observatories. Portugal will be one of the first countries to deploy SMART cables, along its Continent-Azores-Madeira (CAM) ring; full operational status is expected by 2026. The exact number of sensors is still under decision, but a total of 20-40 is expected. SMART cables will observe basic physical parameters that remain currently unknown, namely:

• Ocean bottom temperature. Whereas the surface of the oceans is fairly well monitored by satellites, the dynamics of the ocean’s deep layers and their role in the Earth’s changing climate remain poorly understood. SMART cables will monitor the deep ocean’s temperature, with potential impacts for a better understanding of climate processes (e.g., on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation).

• Ocean bottom pressure. Observations of the temporal and spatial variations of ocean bottom pressure are currently very limited worldwide. A better understanding of these variations is key to gaining insight into the loads that act on the surface of our planet and to better calibrate satellite gravimetry observations. Tsunami waves will be captured offshore, far from the coastlines, allowing for the confirmation, update or cancellation of tsunami alert messages issued based only on earthquake information. This is particularly relevant for tsunamis generated close to the shore, as history has shown to be the case in NE Atlantic.

• Ocean bottom ground motion. Portugal has a long history of destructive earthquakes and tsunamis. Earthquake monitoring relies mostly on land observations, which have a limited resolution and capability to observe offshore processes. Ocean bottom seismometers will provide enhanced earthquake capability, notably in early warning applications, but also in improving the accuracy of monitoring of background processes.

During the past years, IDL collaborated on establishing the technical requirements of the sensors of CAM-SMART cables and led studies on evaluating their expected impacts. Over the coming 5 years, as the CAM-SMART cables become fully operational, we will work to explore their full potential.

The "SUBMarine cablEs for ReSearch and Exploration" (SUBMERSE) programme (https://www.fccn.pt/en/inovacao/submerse/), launched in May 2023, provides the financial support and link between research in academia (including IDL) and industry. It is part of a consortium of European and global partners, supported by the European Union's Horizon, aiming at making available to the scientific community, civil society and industry, data from continuous observations on several submarine fibre optic cables, using a standardized technological configuration on a continental scale.

E.2. Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) cables

DAS cables are fibre optic cables that act as a distributed strain sensor. Light is emitted at one end of the fibre, and the analysis of the backscattered energy provides information on the longitudinal strain along the cable. DAS cables were first used on land as ground motion sensors. Submarine DAS cables can be used to capture ground motion due to the propagation of seismic waves, but also local loads such as those due to oceanic processes (currents, waves, etc.). DAS cables work efficiently up to 150 km without repeaters and sample data at very high rates, therefore they are especially well suited to study local processes (earthquakes, tsunamis, ocean sediment structure, ocean currents, waves, etc.) and contribute also to conservation policies involved in monitoring vocalizing baleen whales since those sounds are also recorded on DAS.

IDL is currently analysing data recorded at one DAS submarine cable in Madeira, and a second DAS cable will soon be operational offshore Sines, mainland Portugal. IDL currently participated in the EU project SUBMERSE (https://submerse.eu, https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/101095055 ), with the task of cross-validating DAS data with local Ocean Bottom Seismometer (OBS) data. Under the FCT MODAS project, coordinated by IDL (https://modas.rd.ciencias.ulisboa.pt/home/) one DAS is being deployed in Faial to monitor the cable that connects Faial with Flores. A similar cross-validation experiment with OBS is also planned.

F.1. Recent achievements

Recent achievements in this area, seen as starting points of a strong investment to carry out in the next five to ten years, include contributions in remote sensing, compound extreme events, geochemistry, geophysics, and energy transition, namely:

• Application of unsupervised learning algorithm k-means to geochemical data of regolith from the Geological Survey of Western Australia, and multifractal-based data outputs to define geochemical anomalies for targeting mineralization types, such as Cu-Zn-Pb and Ni-Cu, in the Yilgarn Craton of Western Australia. This work was jointly developed with research collaborators from CSIRO, WA.

• Use of ML to analyse compound extreme events and to downscale climate change information to local scales, such as cities, to assist policymakers and researchers. This new line of research explores the interface between ML techniques, the analysis of compound events and combined downscaling tools with regional climate models. It builds on the existing physical modelling of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system where IDL has a long experience and international recognition (e.g. global and regional climate modelling with contributions to CMIP6 and CORDEX) with new deep learning methods, particularly convolutional neural networks architectures, to downscale Earth System and Global Climate Models climate scenarios.

• The exploration of new approaches to merge physically based models and ML techniques to (i) develop new algorithms to estimate geophysical parameters from remote sensing observations (e.g. burnt areas), building on the long experience of IDL in this area and international recognition (e.g. LSA SAF) and (ii) to search for links between earth system processes and their role in the amplification of climate extremes (e.g. land-atmosphere feedbacks where IDL has an extensive track record) aiming to develop deep learning based emulators of these complex processes).

• The use of machine learning to analyse earthquake data from arrays with a growing number of sensors allows the illumination of active seismic structures in detail, contributing both to a better understanding of seismogenic processes and a better mitigation of earthquake risk.

• The use of machine learning algorithms as alternatives to the traditional inverse problems of geophysics opens the door to a new generation of geophysical models, with the potential to be both more accurate and to provide meaningful uncertainty estimates.

The ability of machine learning to identify patterns and adapt to changing conditions makes it a powerful tool for optimizing energy systems, reducing costs, and accelerating the integration of sustainable energy sources into the grid. In the context of the energy transition, machine learning algorithms can analyse vast datasets to predict energy production patterns, and optimize grid management to enhance the reliability of renewable sources. Additionally, in energy consumption, machine learning applications enable the development of smart grids, predictive maintenance for energy infrastructure, and personalized energy management solutions for end-users. IDL is already addressing these challenges, either at the fundamental level (such as understanding deep learning multiagent emerging collaborative demand response behaviours in solar communities), within international consortia (EC SATO project: Self-Assessment Towards Optimization of Building Energy) or close to applications (within Smart energy lab – CoLAB pilot projects).

 F.2. Recent publications

We list below a number of IDL publications that attest the ongoing progress in this field, i.e., that illustrate the present advances in incorporating AI and ML methods in core areas of IDL research (IDL researchers in bold):

• Gonçalves, M.A., Rasteiro da Silva, D., Duuring, P., Gonzalez-Alvarez, I., Ibrahimi, T. (in press) Mineral exploration and regional surface geochemical datasets: An anomaly detection and k-means clustering exercise applied on laterite in Western Australia. Journal of Geochemical Exploration, 107400, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gexplo.2024.107400.

• Kheirdast, N., A. Ansari, and S. Custodio (2021). Neuro-Fuzzy Kinematic Finite-Fault Inversion: 1. Methodology. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 126(8). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020jb020770.

• Kheirdast, N., A. Ansari, and S. Custodio (2021). Neuro-Fuzzy Kinematic Finite-Fault Inversion: 2. Application to the Mw6.2, August/24/2016, Amatrice Earthquake. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 126(8). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020jb020773.

• Lopes FM, Dutra E, Trigo IF. Integrating Reanalysis and Satellite Cloud Information to Estimate Surface Downward Long-Wave Radiation. Remote Sensing. 2022; 14(7):1704. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14071704.

• Mohammadigheymasi, H., N. Tavakolizadeh, L. Matias, S. M. Mousavi, G. Silveira, S. Custodio, N. Dias, R. Fernandes, and Y. Moradichaloshtori (2023). Application of deep learning for seismicity analysis in Ghana. Geosystems and Geoenvironment, 2(2):100152. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geogeo. 2022.100152

• Pinto, M.M.; Libonati, R.; Trigo, R.M.; Trigo, I.F.; DaCamara, C.C. A deep learning approach for mapping and dating burned areas using temporal sequences of satellite images. ISPRS J. Photogramm. Remote Sens. 2020, 160, 260–274. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2019.12.014

• Shiddiqi, H. A., L. Ottemoller, S. Rondenay, S. Custodio, F. Halpaap, and V. K. Gahalaut (2023). Comparison of Earthquake Clusters in a Stable Continental Region: A Case Study from Nordland, Northern Norway. Seismological Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220220325

• Soares, P. M. M., Johannsen, F., Lima, D. C. A., Lemos, G., Bento, V., and Bushenkova, A.: High resolution downscaling of CMIP6 Earth System and Global Climate Models using deep learning for Iberia, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-136, accepted.

Documents reflecting IDL’s partner institutions commitments to gender equality

• FCienciasID code conduct ; FCienciasID gender equality plan

• ISEL gender equality plan

• UAlgarve gender equality plan

• UBI gender equality plan

• UCoimbra gender equality plan

• ULisboa gender equality plan

Collaboration between Geology researchers from RG2 and RG3 and Meteorology colleagues from RG1, include (IDL researchers in bold):

• Hernández, A., Cachão M., Sousa P.M., Trigo R.M., Luterbacher J., Vaquero J.M., Freitas. M.C. (2021) “External forcing mechanisms controlling the North Atlantic coastal upwelling regime during the mid-Holocene”. Geology, v. 49, /doi.org/10.1130/G48112. https://doi.org/10.1130/G48112.1

• Moreno J., Fatela F., Moreno F., Gonçalves M.A., Leorri E., Trigo, R.M., Moreno F., Gómez-Navarro J.I., Brâzdil R., Fereira M. (2018) “Climate reconstruction for the Entre-Douro-e-Minho region (NW Portugal) between AD1626 and AD1820: synthesis of viticulture data and foramineral evidence”. Boreas, 53 doi:10.1111/bor.12331. https://doi.org/10.1111/bor.12331 

• Moreno J., Fatela F., Leorri E., Gonçalves M.A, Gómez-Navarro, J.J., Araújo M.F., Freitas M.C., Trigo R.M., Blake W.H., Moreno F. (2019) “Foraminiferal evidence of major environmental changes driven by the sun-climate coupling in the western Portuguese coast (14th century to present)”, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 218, pp. 106-118, DOI: 10.1016/j.ecss.2018.11.030. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2018.11.030

• Moreno J., Leorri E., Fatela F., Freitas M.C., Moreno F., Mirão J., Dias L., Leira M., Masqué P., Russo A., Cunha A., Inácio M., Blake W.H. (2023) “Dating recent tidal marsh sediments using windborne giant particles of green petcoke – An example from the southwest coast of Portugal”, Continental Shelf Research, 262, art. no. 105026, DOI: 10.1016/j.csr.2023.105026. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2023.105026

Collaborations involving researchers from RG3 (Solid Earth) and from RG2 (Land surface processes) comprise (IDL researchers in bold):

(Concerning Oceanic processes and Oceanic environment)

• Corela, C., Loureiro, A., Duarte, J. L., Matias, L., Rebelo, T., & Bartolomeu, T. (2022). The OBS noise due to deep ocean currents. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 2022, 1-21. DOI: 10.5194/nhess-23-1433-2023. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1433-2023  

• Matias, L., Carrilho, F., Sá, V., Omira, R., Niehus, M., Corela, C., ... & Omar, Y. (2021). The contribution of submarine optical fiber telecom cables to the monitoring of earthquakes and tsunamis in the NE Atlantic. Frontiers in Earth Science, 611. DOI: 10.3389/feart.2021.686296. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.686296

 (Concerning volcanic islands processes)

•  Civiero, C., Custódio, S., Neres, M., Schlaphorst, D., Mata, J., & Silveira, G. (2021). The role of the seismically slow Central‐East Atlantic anomaly in the genesis of the Canary and Madeira volcanic provinces. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(13), e2021GL092874. DOI: 10.1029/2021GL092874. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL092874

• Quartau, R., Ramalho, R. S., Madeira, J., Santos, R., Rodrigues, A., Roque, C., ... & Da Silveira, A.B. (2018). Gravitational, erosional and depositional processes on volcanic ocean islands: Insights from the submarine morphology of Madeira Archipelago. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 482, 288-299. DOI: 10.1016/j.epsl.2017.11.003. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2017.11.003 

• Lordi, A. L., Neves, M. C., Custódio, S., & Dumont, S. (2023). Evidence of earthquake seasonality in the Azores Triple Junction. Geo-Marine Letters, 43(1), 6. DOI: 10.1007/s00367-023-00744-3. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00367-023-00744-3 

Collaborations between climate change and remote sensing research (RG1) and energy transition researchers (RG4) includes (IDL researchers in bold):

• João Bravo Dias, Guilherme Carrilho da Graça, Pedro M.M. Soares, Comparison of methodologies for generation of future weather data for building thermal energy simulation, Energy and Buildings, Volume 206, 2020, 109556, ISSN 0378-7788, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2019.109556

• Alexandra Hurduc, Sofia L. Ermida, Miguel C. Brito, Frank-M. Göttsche, Carlos DaCamara, Impact of a small-scale solar park on temperature and vegetation parameters obtained from Landsat 8, Renewable Energy, Volume 221, 2024, 119827, ISSN 0960-1481, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2023.119827

• Pedro M M Soares, Miguel C Brito, João A M Careto, Persistence of the high solar potential in Africa in a changing climate, Environmental Research Letters, Volume 14, Number 12, 124036, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab51a1

• Angelo Soares, Cristina Catita, Carla Silva, Exploratory Research of CO2, Noise and Metabolic Energy Expenditure in Lisbon Commuting, Energies, Volume 13, Number 4, 861, ISSN 1996-1073, https://doi.org/10.3390/en1304086

Very recent collaborations between researchers working in mineral resources (RG3) and colleagues of the Energy Transition group (RG4), include:

• Teixeira B., Brito M., Mateus A. Challenges to the implementation of a large-scale green hydrogen economy: raw materials requirements, technological drivers, and energy policy tasks. Energy Policy (submitted in 2023; under revision)

• Teixeira B., Brito M., Mateus A. (2024) Raw materials for the Portuguese decarbonization roadmap: the case of solar photovoltaics and wind energy. Resources Policy (submitted in 2023; under revision)

• Teixeira, B., Brito, M., Mateus, A. (2024) Can Portugal ensure self-sufficiency in lithium for national mobility by 2050? ICEE2024, Braga (submitted)